When 7 is not Greater than 2 - Dan Dierdorf - Indianapolis at New England, January 11, 2014

Dan Dierdorf is a football guy.  He played 13 seasons in the NFL, all for the St. Louis Cardinals.  He played all the positions on the offensive line, made the Pro Bowl 6 times and was enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 1996.  Heck, he was even born in Canton, Ohio.  (For those of you unaware, it's the location of the Football Hall of Fame).  So it was especially puzzling to many football fans when Dierdorf basically said during last Saturday's Colts/Patriots game, that giving up 2 points is not as good as giving up 7 points or 3 points.

The Situation

On 4th down at their own 44 yard line, the Patriots line up to punt.  The snap sails over punter Ryan Allen's head, all the way back to the 2 yard line.  Allen eventually fumbles but the ball is batted out of the end zone for a safety, one of the more bizarre plays in the game.

Dierdorf, as the CBS color commentator (broadcasting his final game), suggested that it would have been better if Allen covered up the ball at the 2 yard line, preventing the Colts from scoring a safety that play.  Various pundits covering and watching the game blew up at that comment, saying it was one of the worst commentary they had ever heard.

The Two Worst Kicking Plays of the Playoffs - Indianapolis at New England - January 11, 2014

These were by far the two worst kicking decisions in the playoffs so far.  I'm not going to even do the math on these, but let's see how absurd these decisions are.  One decision was made while desperately behind, the other while comfortably ahead, and while neither determined the outcome of the game, they were both completely absurd.

The Game

The Indianapolis Colts faced the New England Patriots in the AFC Divisional round of the 2014 playoffs.  Due to the some early miscues, the Colts find themselves down in the game early, though only down 21-12 at halftime.  However, it's the 4th quarter decisions that leave me shaking my head.

Giving Up on the Season - Chuck Pagano

In the 4th quarter, the Colts are now down by 3 touchdowns, 22-43, and have the ball on their own 29 yard line with a 4th down and 1 (though it was probably less than 1 yard).  There is 10:30 left in the game.  The Patriots have been running the ball down your throat all game and will do so if they get the ball in an attempt to run out the clock. 

This is an obvious go-for-it situation here if you want to win a playoff game.  Instead, out comes the punt team.  It doesn't matter that field position is bad for the Colts, they're down by 3 touchdowns and desperate.  The Patriots would go on to take 8 more minutes off the clock, and the Colts would only have 1 more possession to close out the game.

When a team is that desperate in a playoff game and you send out the kicking unit, that qualifies as one of the worst kicking decisions in the playoffs, never mind the outcome.

Punting for 6 Yards - Bill Belichick

Later in the same quarter, the Patriots are running the clock down to under 3 minutes when they face a 4th and 10 at the Colts 26 yard line.  A field goal try would be around 44 yards here, a makable distance for kicker Stephen Gostowski.  Going for it would not be easy, but would give the Patriots a chance, however a slim one, to maintain the ball.  Plus, up 3 touchdowns, field position matters less.

Out comes the punt team, and Gostowski punts it into the end zone for a touchback.  Net gain in field position of 6 yards.  Since the Patriots go on to win this handily, nothing Belichick could do here would run their chances of victory, but it just leaves you scratching your head sometimes.

Taking the Points, Part II - Miami vs. New England, December 15, 2013

The Miami Dolphins once again faced a "close" 4th down decision nearing halftime of the New England @ Miami tilt in week 15.  Down, 0-3, Miami decided to attempt a field goal, as color announcer Phil Simms said, "It looks like it's a whole yard short ... it's a good decision by the Dolphins [to go for the field goal].  Get on the scoreboard, Jim [Nantz], there nothing worse for a QB or coach to look up at that scoreboard and see that 0."

Was Simms right?  Is it better to kick the field goal here?

The Situation

After the 3rd down pass to Michael Egnew falls short of the line to gain, the Dolphins face 4th down and a long yard (one closer to 2 yards than 0 yards) on the New England 24 yard line with 3:34 left in the first half.  Out trots the FG team and Simms claims it's good to get the points on the board rather than to walk away with nothing.  However, the game of football doesn't care if you score points, you need to out score the opponent, and in this situation, you should maximize the number of Expected Points you're going to get.

So how do we calculate whether it was the right decision to kick the field goal or not?

The Factors

We have to look at several factors to determine whether or not attempting a field goal is the right move here.  Of course, we are simplifying some of these percentages, but if there is an obvious decision, that won't change with fine tuning of these numbers.

1) What is the chance kicker Caleb Sturgis will make the 42 yard field goal attempt?

2) What is the chance Miami will convert this 4th and 1 attempt?

3) If Miami makes the 4th and 1, what are the expected number of points they can expect from this drive?

4) When New England recovers the ball, either after a failed FG try, failed 4th down try, or after a kickoff following a Miami TD, what is their chances of scoring?