Dan Dierdorf is a football guy. He played 13 seasons in the NFL, all for the St. Louis Cardinals. He played all the positions on the offensive line, made the Pro Bowl 6 times and was enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 1996. Heck, he was even born in Canton, Ohio. (For those of you unaware, it's the location of the Football Hall of Fame). So it was especially puzzling to many football fans when Dierdorf basically said during last Saturday's Colts/Patriots game, that giving up 2 points is not as good as giving up 7 points or 3 points.
The Situation
On 4th down at their own 44 yard line, the Patriots line up to punt. The snap sails over punter Ryan Allen's head, all the way back to the 2 yard line. Allen eventually fumbles but the ball is batted out of the end zone for a safety, one of the more bizarre plays in the game.
Dierdorf, as the CBS color commentator (broadcasting his final game), suggested that it would have been better if Allen covered up the ball at the 2 yard line, preventing the Colts from scoring a safety that play. Various pundits covering and watching the game blew up at that comment, saying it was one of the worst commentary they had ever heard.
At face value, it's easy to see why people were laughing at Dierdorf. He said, "There's two schools of thought here. You don't concede points if you go down in the field of play and you see what happens. Yeah, granted they might score a touchdown. But you might also limit them to a field goal attempt. I mean anything can happen."
Yes, anything CAN happen, but what's the most likely outcome here? And even if you hold them to a FG attempt, it's a near 100% lock to score 3 points. And it goes without saying, 3 > 2.
However, in his defense, Dierdorf mentions something the others don't. On a safety, the Colts will get the ball back after the free kick from the 20 yard line. This basically then becomes a possession with 2 bonus points according to Dierdorf, with the chance at scoring more points. So, what's actually better for the Patriots in this spot?
Calculations
To determine what would be better, taking the safety, or covering the ball at the 2 yard line, we have to look at the expected points for the Colts in both cases.
Taking the Safety
Taking the safety will obviously give the Colts 2 points, but one point of Dierdorf's argument was the Colts would get the ball back after the free kick and could score again. So, the calculation for the expected points for the Colts for taking the safety would be:
EP(Take the Safety) = 2 + EP(After the Free Kick)
The free kick is simply a punt from the Patriots' 20 yard line. Advanced NFL Stats has a post about the average resulting field position is the offense's own 40 yard line. Similarly, their Win Probability Calculator lists the Expected Points for the offense from their own 40 yard line as 1.44 points. So, the expected points for the Colts is actually:
2 + 1.44 = 3.44
So in this case, the expected number of points for the Colts is actually MORE than a field goal. But is it the wrong move, as Dierdorf claims?
Covering the Ball at the 2
If Allen covered up at the 2 yard line, the Colts will regain possession right there. Now, there are no sure things, but there's a potential for a touchdown (which we'll assume as 7 points) or a field goal attempt (3 points). To figure the Colts expected points if they get the ball at the 2 yard line, we'll use Advanced NFL Stats calculator again. They list a probability of a Colts touchdown as 78% with the probability of a field goal at 14%. The remaining 8% of the time, there will be a turnover or a missed field goal.
The calculations for the Colts expected points now looks like this:
EP(Cover the Ball) = P(TD)(7) + P(FG)(3)
EP(Cover the Ball) = (0.78)(7) + (0.14)(3)
EP(Cover the Ball) = 5.88
If Allen covered the ball at his own 2 yard line, the Colts would on average score 5.88 points here, well more than the 3.44 points from taking the safety.
Conclusion
It's not even close. The ability for the Colts to get a touchdown at a 78% clip well outweighs the extra benefit of the Colts scoring 2 points right away and also getting the ball back. Since the Patriots should do what the Colts don't want, taking the safety was clearly the right play.
In the heat of the moment, Allen might not be able to think perfectly clearly. In fact, it looked like he tried to pass the ball, probably the best outcome if it fell incomplete, but could lead to Garo Yepremian results as well. However, all football players, especially special teams players, should be conditioned to know what to do in this case.
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