Taking the Points, Part II - Miami vs. New England, December 15, 2013

The Miami Dolphins once again faced a "close" 4th down decision nearing halftime of the New England @ Miami tilt in week 15.  Down, 0-3, Miami decided to attempt a field goal, as color announcer Phil Simms said, "It looks like it's a whole yard short ... it's a good decision by the Dolphins [to go for the field goal].  Get on the scoreboard, Jim [Nantz], there nothing worse for a QB or coach to look up at that scoreboard and see that 0."

Was Simms right?  Is it better to kick the field goal here?

The Situation

After the 3rd down pass to Michael Egnew falls short of the line to gain, the Dolphins face 4th down and a long yard (one closer to 2 yards than 0 yards) on the New England 24 yard line with 3:34 left in the first half.  Out trots the FG team and Simms claims it's good to get the points on the board rather than to walk away with nothing.  However, the game of football doesn't care if you score points, you need to out score the opponent, and in this situation, you should maximize the number of Expected Points you're going to get.

So how do we calculate whether it was the right decision to kick the field goal or not?

The Factors

We have to look at several factors to determine whether or not attempting a field goal is the right move here.  Of course, we are simplifying some of these percentages, but if there is an obvious decision, that won't change with fine tuning of these numbers.

1) What is the chance kicker Caleb Sturgis will make the 42 yard field goal attempt?

2) What is the chance Miami will convert this 4th and 1 attempt?

3) If Miami makes the 4th and 1, what are the expected number of points they can expect from this drive?

4) When New England recovers the ball, either after a failed FG try, failed 4th down try, or after a kickoff following a Miami TD, what is their chances of scoring?

Taking the Points - Less Likely to Win? Miami at Pittsburgh December 8, 2013

Conventional Wisdom says to take the points, especially when taking "gimme" points makes your lead go from 3 points to 6 points and forces your opponent to score a touchdown to win the game, rather than being able to tie the game with a field goal.  Depending on the situation, is this always right?  Should you be taking the "gimme" points in this situation at all times?

The Situation

Miami has the ball and is leading Pittsburgh 31-28.  It's 4th and goal on the Pittsburgh 9 yard line and 1:12 left to go in the game.  The obvious play is to kick the field goal, which they do, and they now lead 34-28.  However, on 4th down, with 3 seconds left, the Steelers complete a near miracle 5-lateral play to score a touchdown.  However, Antonio Brown stepped out of bounds on his way to the end zone, ending the game and allowing Miami to escape with a win.

Antonio Brown steps out of bounds before finding paydirt

The fact that Miami won overlooks the 4th and 9 decision a minute before.  Was it the right decision?

The decision comes down to whether the Dolphins should kick the field goal, or run a play on 4th down.

The Factors

There are several factors which can help us decide the right course of action, some are more relevant than others depending on the decision made.  We will look at all probabilities from the Dolphin's point of view.

• What is the probability of making the field goal?
• Given the field goal is made, what is the probability you will win the game?
• If the field goal is not made, what is the probability you will still win the game?
• What is the probability of scoring a touchdown?
• What is the probability of winning the game if you score a touchdown?
• What is the probability of winning the game if you don't score a touchdown?

All factors can be boiled down into one of the preceding factors.  For example, how well your defense is playing or how well the opposing kickoff return unit is playing, all can be taken into account with the above factors.

The Calculations

To determine the best course of action, we need to calculate the total win probability for each action, then figure out which decision is more likely to win the game.  With the game nearly over, the important metric is Win Probability (WP), not Expected Points (EP).  Expected Points is something coaches should be looking to maximize early in the game as it's highly correlated with WP, but by the end of the game, EP and WP can diverge quite a bit.