The Chiefs/Colts game was crazy, with 89 points scored between the two teams and a 4 touchdown comeback (the 2nd greatest comeback in NFL playoff history, only to this '93 game between the Oilers and the Bills). The Colt's 45-44 victory will be remembered for a long time in Indianapolis and around the league.
With the game being decided by a single point, one might think the game's most important decisions were made in the 2nd half as Indianapolis made their comeback. Indeed, it was quite a monumental collapse by Kansas City. Advanced NFL Stats even looked into the Chiefs' chance of winning if they simply knelt down on every play in the 2nd half. However, there was a play early in the game that could have helped Kansas City get to an even further lead.
The Situation
With the game tied at 7, Kansas City faced a 4th-and-1 at the Colts' 1 yard line. They got to this point from an Alex Smith to Dwayne Bowe 63 yard hookup, but only managed 1 yard on the first 3 downs. Out comes the field goal unit and Ryan Succop kicks a 19 yard field goal to go up by 3. Was it the right move? Was it in fact the "safe" play here?
The Factors
Once again, we will look at the probabilities of success and failure for both a 4th down attempt and a field goal, but also look at what the expected outcome of the next Colts possession would be. To do so, we will break it down into several parts:
1. Chiefs Kick a Field Goal
a. What is the probability of success or failure?
b. What is the expected outcome of the Colts' next drive depending on success or failure?
2. Chiefs Go for It on 4th Down
a. What is the probability of success or failure?
b. What is the expected outcome of the Colts' next drive depending on success or failure?
Since the game is still in the first half, the clock makes much less of a difference. Clearly, if it was a tie game with only 2 seconds left to go, the Chief's would maximize win probability instead of trying to score the most points.
