How not to execute a "go for it"

With 7 minutes in the Sunday Night game on September 28, the Saints were down losing to the Cowboys by 14 points, 17-31. Facing 4th and 9 on their own 40 yard line, prospects were bleak as to win the game (Advanced Football Analytics has it at 2%).

As you might guess, this blog would favor going for it, as you might as well roll the dice and try to give yourself the best chance of winning. Losing by 21 vs. losing by 14 doesn't really matter here. Sean Payton and the Saints trot out the punt team, but they execute a fake punt, putting the ball in the hands of punter Thomas Morestead who, after scrambling to find an open receiver, gets tackled for a 2 yard loss.

Now, while I certainly enjoy watching unpredictable plays and aggressive play calling, this was particularly bad. There were several factors making this a bad play.

1) The offense was down by 14 points late in the game, meaning the defense would be wise to look for trickery in a desperate situation.
2) The primary ball carrier isn't used to handling the ball in this way.
3) The players on the field are not regular starters, in order to not tip off the play.

All in all, just a bad idea. Either punting and hoping for a stop or going for it with a regular offense would have been better. Alternatively, a run might have worked too. It surely would have gotten better results than a 2 yard loss. In fact, the punter should have just thrown the ball away in that spot rather than take the 2 yard loss, not that it matters much.

Ultimately, who do you want throwing the ball here?

Drew Brees career passing stats:
4,564 completions, 6,916 attempts (66%)
51,944 yards (7.5 yards per attempt)
368 TD passes

Thomas Morestead career passing stats:
0 completions, 0 attempts, 0 TD passes

The Fine Line Between Genius and Insanity, Eric Weddle - San Diego vs. Kansas City, December 29, 2013

In week 17 of the 2013 season, the San Diego Chargers needed a win (or a tie) against the Kansas City Chiefs to advance to the playoffs.  KC kicker Ryan Succop missed a field goal attempt at the end of regulation to give the Chargers a chance to win it in overtime.  The most memorable play from that overtime period was when Charger safety Eric Weddle, as the personal protector on the punt team, took the snap from punt formation and rushed to gain a first down.  The Chargers go on to kick a field goal on this drive and hold on to win.


This was one of the most gutsy moves of the season, one that wasn't called by head coach Mike McCoy or special teams coach Kevin Spencer, but it was called by Weddle himself.  Luckily for them, it worked... or was it luck?

Should Weddle have audibled to the run?  What success rate did he need to make it worth it?

The Situation

In order to figure out whether or not it was the right move, we need to look at the situation as a whole. Some of the factors we have to look at include, the time left in the game, the current down and distance, and the win probabilities when either a) Converting 4th down b) Failing to convert 4th down and c) Punting.

From these numbers, we will be able to figure out what chance of success the Chargers will need on this play to attempt to gain the 1st down rather than punt.

The Clock

It's early in overtime, so the time on clock doesn't really factor in this case.  However, what does matter is that it's overtime.  If a play goes bad here, there's no turning back as Kansas City would have excellent field position for a win.  Many coaches take the opposite approach, refusing to be aggressive early in the game when a mistake can be overcome since there's a lot of time left in the game.

The Down and Distance

Though the graphics on the screen, and the official play-by-play, listed the play as a 4th and 2 from the 28 yard line, the ball was actually spotted on the 27 yard line, making it a 4th and 3 play, as shown below.

The famous fake punt play, actually 4th down and 3 yards to go

The fact that it's 4th and 3 will obviously make it more difficult to convert into a 1st down than 4th & 2, however running a fake gives the Chargers the element of surprise.