Fortune Favors the Bold - Seattle vs. San Francisco - NFC Championship Game January 19, 2014

The Seattle Seahawks are going to Super Bowl XLVIII on the strength of a 23-17 victory over the visiting San Francisco 49ers.  The big play was the 4th and 7 touchdown pass from Russell Wilson to Jermaine Kearse from the 49ers 35 yard line.  Fortune favors the bold, and while some coaches might have opted to take the 53 yard field goal attempt or a punt to pin the 49ers deep in their own territory with plenty of time to get the ball back.  Coach Pete Carroll opted to go for it, and was rewarded.

Seahawks Jermaine Kearse catches this 35 yard TD pass from QB Russell Wilson

Though the decision paid off, we want to look at the mathematics behind the decision to figure out if it was a correct one or not.  Which option was the best in this situation?

The Situation and Options

At the start of the 4th quarter (13:52 remaining), the Seahawks trail 13-17.  The ball is at the 49ers 35 yard line and it's now 4th and 7.  The three options here are all seemingly reasonable:

1. Punting
2. Attempting a Field Goal
3. Going for it

In order to figure out which option is the best, we'll have to make some assumptions and use the Win Probability calculator from Advanced NFL Stats, to break down the expected outcome of each situation.

The Fine Line Between Genius and Insanity, Eric Weddle - San Diego vs. Kansas City, December 29, 2013

In week 17 of the 2013 season, the San Diego Chargers needed a win (or a tie) against the Kansas City Chiefs to advance to the playoffs.  KC kicker Ryan Succop missed a field goal attempt at the end of regulation to give the Chargers a chance to win it in overtime.  The most memorable play from that overtime period was when Charger safety Eric Weddle, as the personal protector on the punt team, took the snap from punt formation and rushed to gain a first down.  The Chargers go on to kick a field goal on this drive and hold on to win.


This was one of the most gutsy moves of the season, one that wasn't called by head coach Mike McCoy or special teams coach Kevin Spencer, but it was called by Weddle himself.  Luckily for them, it worked... or was it luck?

Should Weddle have audibled to the run?  What success rate did he need to make it worth it?

The Situation

In order to figure out whether or not it was the right move, we need to look at the situation as a whole. Some of the factors we have to look at include, the time left in the game, the current down and distance, and the win probabilities when either a) Converting 4th down b) Failing to convert 4th down and c) Punting.

From these numbers, we will be able to figure out what chance of success the Chargers will need on this play to attempt to gain the 1st down rather than punt.

The Clock

It's early in overtime, so the time on clock doesn't really factor in this case.  However, what does matter is that it's overtime.  If a play goes bad here, there's no turning back as Kansas City would have excellent field position for a win.  Many coaches take the opposite approach, refusing to be aggressive early in the game when a mistake can be overcome since there's a lot of time left in the game.

The Down and Distance

Though the graphics on the screen, and the official play-by-play, listed the play as a 4th and 2 from the 28 yard line, the ball was actually spotted on the 27 yard line, making it a 4th and 3 play, as shown below.

The famous fake punt play, actually 4th down and 3 yards to go

The fact that it's 4th and 3 will obviously make it more difficult to convert into a 1st down than 4th & 2, however running a fake gives the Chargers the element of surprise.