The Situation
In Sudden Death Overtime, Chicago has the ball and is driving after a Minnesota missed field goal (well, kicker Blair Walsh actually made one attempt, but was called back due to a stupid face mask penalty).
On 2nd down and 7 at the Minnesota 29 yard line, coach Marc Trestman elects to have kicker Robbie Gould try a game winning 47 yard field goal. Was this the right move?
On CBS, former Ravens coach and current color commentator Brian Billick agreed with Trestman, saying something to the effect of deciding what yard line your kicker can make the kick from, get it there, center the ball, then trust your kicker to make the kick. Billick basically means the 30 yard line is a plenty good position to kick from, so instead of trying to get more yards, try to kick the FG now and now have anything bad happen.
Why would he say that?
Binary Thinking
Once the offense is in "field goal range," especially in a sudden death situation, most coaches go ultra conservative, making sure the ball isn't turned over. These coaches decide what "field goal range" is for their kicker, then once they cross that line, worry more about keeping possession, centering the ball and the time on the clock rather than the distance to be kicked. This is an example of binary thinking, where the kick can be made at one distance, but missed at another distance. In reality, kickers make shorter kicks with more frequency than longer kicks (duh). So, why are coaches thinking this way?
The reason coaches engaging in binary thinking decide to kick "too early", is because giving up possession on a potential game winning drive is a disaster. They decide to turtle up and take the long field goal try, rather than trying to get closer. Coaches in this situation also typically kick on 3rd down instead of 4th, just in case there's a bad snap or botched hold.
A broad analysis of field goals at the 45-49 yard distance shows a 68.6% chance of making the kick. Since 68.6 is more than 50%, surely it's the right move, right?
Given this number, why would any coach try to move the ball down the field further? What are the benefits and costs of trying to move the ball down the field further, particularly in this sudden death situation?
