When the Safe Move Makes it Less Likely to Win
On Week 15 of the 2014 NFL Season, the division leading Arizona Cardinals faced off in St. Louis vs. the Rams. In the 4th quarter 6:10 remaining, with the Cardinals' defense playing very well, St. Louis faced a 4th and 1 at the Arizona 1 yard line, down 3-12. Needing a touchdown and a field goal (and assuming no more Arizona points), the "safe" move is to "take the points," and try to get a stop. Taking the points keeps you alive, going for a touchdown and failing effectively means you lose the game as time is running out. But does staying alive actually mean you have a better chance of winning the game?
The Logic
People in favor of taking the Field Goal say "you need to take the points" or "if you fail, you've lost the game. You have to stay in the game to win it!"
The counterargument of going for the touchdown is "You're on the 1 yard line now, it's easier to score a touchdown here and then try for a field goal than it is to kick the field goal now and drive the length of the field for a touchdown!"
Which one is right?
