Playing to Win, or Playing for OT? - Rams vs. 49ers, November 2, 2014

In Week 9 of the 2014 NFL season, San Francisco 49ers were losing to the St. Louis Rams 10-13 with just seconds left to go in the game. The 49ers could have taken the "safe" play and kicked a field goal, or taken a more risky play to win the game right away by going for a touchdown. With time running out, most people would have taken the field goal try, gone to overtime, and taken their chances, but what's really the right move here? It turns out it depends, but not necessarily on what you think.

The Factors

The real question to ultimately answer is: Which choice gives the 49ers the best chance to win? Many people say the game isn't played by math, but by players which is of course true. However, if coaches can accurately estimate the chances of success in given situations, it would give them better data with which to make decisions.

Since the game is near the end, we only really have to analyze a few factors: 1) the chance of making the 20 yard field goal try, 2) the chance of making the 3rd and 1 attempt, and 3) the chance of winning the game, if the game goes to overtime.