This blog will attempt to simplify NFL mathematics, to see whether or not coaches are making the right decision given many factors. While it's impossible to accurately estimate all the factors (and their probabilities) involved, we can see how decisions and probabilities can change potential decisions depending on those factors.
From there, we can look at the probabilities of success given the options available. Of course, even if the right decision is made, an unfavorable outcome may occur. The opposite is also possible, a team could make an incorrect decision and have a favorable outcome occur. Certain numbers may be simplified to get a "general idea" of things.
We will also try to take away emotional decisions like "momentum" and "trusting your defense" instead choosing to try to quantify those if possible.
If you're a math or statistics teacher, please feel free to use material from this blog in writing lesson plans or for classroom examples.
Comments are welcome, please keep them civil.
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