Safe Move = Less Chance of a Win (aka "You play to give yourself a chance!") - Arizona at St. Louis Week Dec 11, 2014

When the Safe Move Makes it Less Likely to Win

On Week 15 of the 2014 NFL Season, the division leading Arizona Cardinals faced off in St. Louis vs. the Rams. In the 4th quarter 6:10 remaining, with the Cardinals' defense playing very well, St. Louis faced a 4th and 1 at the Arizona 1 yard line, down 3-12. Needing a touchdown and a field goal (and assuming no more Arizona points), the "safe" move is to "take the points," and try to get a stop. Taking the points keeps you alive, going for a touchdown and failing effectively means you lose the game as time is running out. But does staying alive actually mean you have a better chance of winning the game?

The Logic

People in favor of taking the Field Goal say "you need to take the points" or "if you fail, you've lost the game. You have to stay in the game to win it!"

The counterargument of going for the touchdown is "You're on the 1 yard line now, it's easier to score a touchdown here and then try for a field goal than it is to kick the field goal now and drive the length of the field for a touchdown!"

Which one is right?

Playing to Win, or Playing for OT? - Rams vs. 49ers, November 2, 2014

In Week 9 of the 2014 NFL season, San Francisco 49ers were losing to the St. Louis Rams 10-13 with just seconds left to go in the game. The 49ers could have taken the "safe" play and kicked a field goal, or taken a more risky play to win the game right away by going for a touchdown. With time running out, most people would have taken the field goal try, gone to overtime, and taken their chances, but what's really the right move here? It turns out it depends, but not necessarily on what you think.

The Factors

The real question to ultimately answer is: Which choice gives the 49ers the best chance to win? Many people say the game isn't played by math, but by players which is of course true. However, if coaches can accurately estimate the chances of success in given situations, it would give them better data with which to make decisions.

Since the game is near the end, we only really have to analyze a few factors: 1) the chance of making the 20 yard field goal try, 2) the chance of making the 3rd and 1 attempt, and 3) the chance of winning the game, if the game goes to overtime.

How not to execute a "go for it"

With 7 minutes in the Sunday Night game on September 28, the Saints were down losing to the Cowboys by 14 points, 17-31. Facing 4th and 9 on their own 40 yard line, prospects were bleak as to win the game (Advanced Football Analytics has it at 2%).

As you might guess, this blog would favor going for it, as you might as well roll the dice and try to give yourself the best chance of winning. Losing by 21 vs. losing by 14 doesn't really matter here. Sean Payton and the Saints trot out the punt team, but they execute a fake punt, putting the ball in the hands of punter Thomas Morestead who, after scrambling to find an open receiver, gets tackled for a 2 yard loss.

Now, while I certainly enjoy watching unpredictable plays and aggressive play calling, this was particularly bad. There were several factors making this a bad play.

1) The offense was down by 14 points late in the game, meaning the defense would be wise to look for trickery in a desperate situation.
2) The primary ball carrier isn't used to handling the ball in this way.
3) The players on the field are not regular starters, in order to not tip off the play.

All in all, just a bad idea. Either punting and hoping for a stop or going for it with a regular offense would have been better. Alternatively, a run might have worked too. It surely would have gotten better results than a 2 yard loss. In fact, the punter should have just thrown the ball away in that spot rather than take the 2 yard loss, not that it matters much.

Ultimately, who do you want throwing the ball here?

Drew Brees career passing stats:
4,564 completions, 6,916 attempts (66%)
51,944 yards (7.5 yards per attempt)
368 TD passes

Thomas Morestead career passing stats:
0 completions, 0 attempts, 0 TD passes

Easiest Promotion Ever? Pick the Championship Game Winners and win $5000+ - Independent Probabilities

During the Conference Championship weekend for 2014, Gallery Furniture, a Houston based furniture store offered up refunds to customers who a) correctly picked the winners of both the AFC and NFC championship games, and b) bought more than $5000 worth of furniture.  As shown from the video below, the promotion worked either great, or horrible, depending on your point of view.

When companies run promotions like this which have the possibility to return a lot of money to people, they usually do some sort of statistical analysis to see what the odds of winning actually are.  If they're not comfortable with that sort of risk, companies will frequently insure their promotions so they won't bear the full risk.  The insurance company calculates the odds of success, bills the company making the promotion, then pays out the winnings if the contestant hits.  

That leads us to two questions.  The first is relatively easy to answer: What are the chances of each combination of winners in the Championship games?  The second is more difficult: What will people be betting on?

The games themselves were very well matched.  The Broncos and Seahawks were a combined 26-6 in the regular season, while the Patriots and the 49ers were "only" 24-8.   Though their seeding didn't really reflect it, this was really a matchup of the two best teams in each conference.  So, how did Gallery Furniture lose so much money?

Fortune Favors the Bold - Seattle vs. San Francisco - NFC Championship Game January 19, 2014

The Seattle Seahawks are going to Super Bowl XLVIII on the strength of a 23-17 victory over the visiting San Francisco 49ers.  The big play was the 4th and 7 touchdown pass from Russell Wilson to Jermaine Kearse from the 49ers 35 yard line.  Fortune favors the bold, and while some coaches might have opted to take the 53 yard field goal attempt or a punt to pin the 49ers deep in their own territory with plenty of time to get the ball back.  Coach Pete Carroll opted to go for it, and was rewarded.

Seahawks Jermaine Kearse catches this 35 yard TD pass from QB Russell Wilson

Though the decision paid off, we want to look at the mathematics behind the decision to figure out if it was a correct one or not.  Which option was the best in this situation?

The Situation and Options

At the start of the 4th quarter (13:52 remaining), the Seahawks trail 13-17.  The ball is at the 49ers 35 yard line and it's now 4th and 7.  The three options here are all seemingly reasonable:

1. Punting
2. Attempting a Field Goal
3. Going for it

In order to figure out which option is the best, we'll have to make some assumptions and use the Win Probability calculator from Advanced NFL Stats, to break down the expected outcome of each situation.

When 7 is not Greater than 2 - Dan Dierdorf - Indianapolis at New England, January 11, 2014

Dan Dierdorf is a football guy.  He played 13 seasons in the NFL, all for the St. Louis Cardinals.  He played all the positions on the offensive line, made the Pro Bowl 6 times and was enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 1996.  Heck, he was even born in Canton, Ohio.  (For those of you unaware, it's the location of the Football Hall of Fame).  So it was especially puzzling to many football fans when Dierdorf basically said during last Saturday's Colts/Patriots game, that giving up 2 points is not as good as giving up 7 points or 3 points.

The Situation

On 4th down at their own 44 yard line, the Patriots line up to punt.  The snap sails over punter Ryan Allen's head, all the way back to the 2 yard line.  Allen eventually fumbles but the ball is batted out of the end zone for a safety, one of the more bizarre plays in the game.

Dierdorf, as the CBS color commentator (broadcasting his final game), suggested that it would have been better if Allen covered up the ball at the 2 yard line, preventing the Colts from scoring a safety that play.  Various pundits covering and watching the game blew up at that comment, saying it was one of the worst commentary they had ever heard.

The Two Worst Kicking Plays of the Playoffs - Indianapolis at New England - January 11, 2014

These were by far the two worst kicking decisions in the playoffs so far.  I'm not going to even do the math on these, but let's see how absurd these decisions are.  One decision was made while desperately behind, the other while comfortably ahead, and while neither determined the outcome of the game, they were both completely absurd.

The Game

The Indianapolis Colts faced the New England Patriots in the AFC Divisional round of the 2014 playoffs.  Due to the some early miscues, the Colts find themselves down in the game early, though only down 21-12 at halftime.  However, it's the 4th quarter decisions that leave me shaking my head.

Giving Up on the Season - Chuck Pagano

In the 4th quarter, the Colts are now down by 3 touchdowns, 22-43, and have the ball on their own 29 yard line with a 4th down and 1 (though it was probably less than 1 yard).  There is 10:30 left in the game.  The Patriots have been running the ball down your throat all game and will do so if they get the ball in an attempt to run out the clock. 

This is an obvious go-for-it situation here if you want to win a playoff game.  Instead, out comes the punt team.  It doesn't matter that field position is bad for the Colts, they're down by 3 touchdowns and desperate.  The Patriots would go on to take 8 more minutes off the clock, and the Colts would only have 1 more possession to close out the game.

When a team is that desperate in a playoff game and you send out the kicking unit, that qualifies as one of the worst kicking decisions in the playoffs, never mind the outcome.

Punting for 6 Yards - Bill Belichick

Later in the same quarter, the Patriots are running the clock down to under 3 minutes when they face a 4th and 10 at the Colts 26 yard line.  A field goal try would be around 44 yards here, a makable distance for kicker Stephen Gostowski.  Going for it would not be easy, but would give the Patriots a chance, however a slim one, to maintain the ball.  Plus, up 3 touchdowns, field position matters less.

Out comes the punt team, and Gostowski punts it into the end zone for a touchback.  Net gain in field position of 6 yards.  Since the Patriots go on to win this handily, nothing Belichick could do here would run their chances of victory, but it just leaves you scratching your head sometimes.